Out of the Rut

Good news for architects: work should pick up by the fourth quarter of 2010 and into 2011, according to economist James Haughey. A recent article in the Des Moines Business Journal noted that commercial work will be very strong going into 2012. This comes on the heels of Forbes Magazine ranking Des Moines at the #1 city in the nation for business and career development after holding strong for many years in the top ten. Lincoln, NE ranked #5, Omaha ranked #7, and Cedar Rapids ranked #13. Very good news for the Midwest.

Fortunately, Iowa did not suffer as bad as coastal and Sunbelt markets, where a massive building boom took place during the first half of the last decade. Iowa sees neither boom nor bust; just a gradual rise and fall with the markets, usually delayed by up to half a year.

The real question on our minds now should be: is this a V- or W-shaped recession? With $1.4 trillion in commercial loans coming due over the next four years, things could very well get ugly again. However, the optimist in me says we hit the bottom in early 2009, and if there is a "W", the second half will not be nearly as severe as the 2008-2009 dip. The stock market has stabilized, and many industries are reporting increased profits and sales. Retail sales have improved drastically in April. Jobs numbers for April showed 290,000 jobs created, the largest increase in four years. Things are certainly looking up.


Des Moines Business Journal: Architects Should Plan for Better Days Ahead